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| MARKET DATA, INC. - USDA REPORT REVIEW | ||||||||||
| Reported on: | June 11, 2007 | |||||||||
| WHEAT | ||||||||||
| A. | CROP YEAR: | U.S. 2005/06 | U.S. 2006/07 | U.S. 2007/08 | World 2005/06 | World 2006/07 | World 2007/08 | |||
| Projected Date: | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | ||||
| Carryin Stocks | 540 | 571 | 417 | 5,556 | 5,474 | 4,481 | ||||
| Production | 2,105 | 1,812 | 2,168 | 22,864 | 21,829 | 22,419 | ||||
| Imports | 82 | 120 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total Supply | 2,727 | 2,503 | 2,685 | 28,420 | 27,303 | 26,900 | ||||
| Feed Use | 154 | 170 | 230 | 4,106 | 4,011 | 3,856 | ||||
| Crush/Milling | 914 | 925 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Seed/Other | 78 | 82 | 81 | 18,840 | 18,811 | 18,927 | ||||
| Exports | 1,009 | 910 | 1,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total Use | 2,155 | 2,087 | 2,241 | 22,946 | 22,822 | 22,783 | ||||
| Carryout Stocks | 571 | 417 | 443 | 5,474 | 4,481 | 4,116 | ||||
| United States | ||||||||||
| Stocks-to-Use % | 26.50% | 19.96% | 19.77% | Cash price of | 23.86% | 19.63% | 18.07% | |||
| Days of Supply | 97 | 73 | 72 | $4.80 | 87 | 72 | 66 | |||
| 1990 to 2006 | 99 | $3.29 | 1990 to 2006 | 110 | ||||||
| 1970 to present | 142 | $3.13 | 1970 to present | 106 | ||||||
| SOYBEANS | ||||||||||
| B. | CROP YEAR: | U.S. 2005/06 | U.S. 2006/07 | U.S. 2007/08 | World 2005/06 | World 2006/07 | World 2007/08 | |||
| Projected Date: | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | ||||
| Carryin Stocks | 256 | 449 | 610 | 1,780 | 1,982 | 2,337 | ||||
| Production | 3,063 | 3,188 | 2,745 | 8,104 | 8,650 | 8,279 | ||||
| Imports | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total Supply | 3,322 | 3,641 | 3,359 | 9,884 | 10,632 | 10,616 | ||||
| Feed Use | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Crush/Milling | 1,739 | 1,770 | 1,790 | 6,808 | 7,134 | 7,475 | ||||
| Seed/Other | 187 | 182 | 169 | 1,094 | 1,161 | 1,157 | ||||
| Exports | 947 | 1,080 | 1,080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total Use | 2,873 | 3,032 | 3,039 | 7,902 | 8,295 | 8,632 | ||||
| Carryout Stocks | 449 | 610 | 320 | 1,982 | 2,337 | 1,984 | ||||
| United States | ||||||||||
| Stocks-to-Use % | 15.63% | 20.11% | 10.52% | Cash price of | 25.08% | 28.17% | 22.99% | |||
| Days of Supply | 57 | 73 | 38 | $7.15 | 92 | 103 | 84 | |||
| 1990 to 2006 | 36 | $5.75 | 1990 to 2006 | 61 | ||||||
| 1970 to present | 45 | $5.69 | 1970 to present | 70 | ||||||
| CORN | ||||||||||
| C. | CROP YEAR: | U.S. 2005/06 | U.S. 2006/07 | U.S. 2007/08 | World 2005/06 | World 2006/07 | World 2007/08 | |||
| Projected Date: | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | This Month | ||||
| Carryin Stocks | 2,114 | 1,967 | 987 | 5,144 | 4,819 | 3,727 | ||||
| Production | 11,114 | 10,535 | 12,460 | 27,398 | 27,531 | 30,233 | ||||
| Imports | 9 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total Supply | 13,237 | 12,512 | 13,462 | 32,542 | 32,351 | 33,961 | ||||
| Feed Use | 6,141 | 5,850 | 5,700 | 18,728 | 18,728 | 19,059 | ||||
| Crush/Milling | 2,951 | 3,495 | 4,760 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Seed/Other | 30 | 30 | 30 | 8,994 | 9,895 | 11,287 | ||||
| Exports | 2,147 | 2,150 | 1,975 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total Use | 11,269 | 11,525 | 12,465 | 27,723 | 28,624 | 30,347 | ||||
| Carryout Stocks | 1,967 | 987 | 997 | 4,819 | 3,727 | 3,614 | ||||
| United States | ||||||||||
| Stocks-to-Use % | 17.46% | 8.56% | 8.00% | Cash price of | 17.38% | 13.02% | 11.91% | |||
| Days of Supply | 64 | 31 | 29 | $3.40 | 63 | 48 | 43 | |||
| 1990 to 2006 | 57 | $2.26 | 1990 to 2006 | 94 | ||||||
| 1970 to present | 77 | $2.28 | 1970 to present | 92 | ||||||
| Days of Supply is figured by taking the ending stocks and dividing them by the total use for that year times 365 days. | ||||||||||
| MARKET DATA, INC. - USDA REPORT REVIEW | ||||||||||
| June 11, 2007 | ||||||||||
| D. | SUMMARY: | US Carryout | Stocks to Use | Average | World Carryout | Stocks to Use | Days of | |||
| Percentage | US Price | Percentage | Supply | |||||||
| 2007/08 | 2007/08 | 2007/08 | 2007/08 | 2007/08 | 2007/08 | |||||
| 1. | CORN | 997 | 8.00% | $3.40 | 3,727 | 11.91% | 43 | |||
| 2. | BEANS | 320 | 10.52% | $7.15 | 1,984 | 22.99% | 84 | |||
| 3. | WHEAT | 443 | 19.77% | $4.80 | 4,481 | 18.07% | 66 | |||
| E. | ALL USDA'S | 1,760 | 9.92% | 36 | 10,192 | 16.50% | 60 | |||
| F. | AVERAGE U.S. price of Corn, Wheat & Beans | $5.12 | ||||||||
| G. | COMMENTS ON THE USDA ESTIMATES: | |||||||||
| 1. | 2007/2008 WHEAT: USDA lowered their 2007 U.S. crop yield by .2 to 41.5 bushel per acre, raised harvested acres by 100,000 to 52.1 million | |||||||||
| for a 2007 U.S. wheat crop of 2.168 billion bushel or down just 6 million - AFTER - resurveying the key states where freeze occurred - ??? | ||||||||||
| Their 2007 U.S. demand was placed at 930 million for food, 81 million for seed, 1.0 billion of exports (up 25 million), and 230 million for feed. | ||||||||||
| This when combined with imports of 100 million bushel and beginning stocks of 417 million (up 5 on more imports) left ending stocks | ||||||||||
| at 443 million (down 26 million). World production figures fell sharply with the FSU nations showing the most drop due to dry weather. | ||||||||||
| Argentina's production rose 1.2 MMT (?) to 14.0, the U.S. was at 59.0 MMT, China at 100 MMT, India at 73.7, Russia down 3.5 to 45.0, | ||||||||||
| the Ukraine down 3.5 to 17.5, the EU-27 was steady at 127.32 MMT, and Australia was left at 22.1 MMT.. World demand was lowered by | ||||||||||
| 3.8 MMT to 620.07 and ending world stocks fell 1.33 MMT to 112.03 or a record low ending days of supply. Due to the lower | ||||||||||
| U.S. and world ending stocks - this was a slightly BULLISH crop report for wheat. | ||||||||||
| 2. | 2007/2008 SOYBEANS: USDA left acres at their March 30th report figure of 67.1 million, harvested acres of 66.1 million and placed the | |||||||||
| yield at 41.5 million for a 2007 U.S. soybean crop of 2.745 billion bushel. This is down considerably from 2006's 3.188 billion but may be | ||||||||||
| the lowest production you will see this year. U.S. demand was left at 1.790 billion for crush, 1.080 billion of exports and 169 million of other. | ||||||||||
| This caused the ending stocks to fall to 320 million bushel and down to a friendly days of supply level. The world projections for 2007/2008 | ||||||||||
| were very friendly as they placed production at 225.32 MMT (down 10 MMT from last year), world use at 234.28 MMT (up nearly 10 MMT | ||||||||||
| from last year), and ending world stocks fell to 54 MMT (down 9.6 MMT). The lower stocks made this a FRIENDLY soybeans report. | ||||||||||
| 3. | 2007/2008 CORN: USDA left acres at their March 30th report figure of 90.5 million, harvested acres of 82.9 million and placed the yield at | |||||||||
| just 150.3 which caused a 2007 U.S. corn crop of 12.460 billion bushel. Their demand figures showed feed use down 150 million to 5.700 | ||||||||||
| billion, ethanol use up a large 1.25 billion to 3.400 billion and seed and industrial use at 1.390 billion. With 15 million of imports this left | ||||||||||
| the ending carryout rose 50 (less 06/07 exports) to 997 million bushel. The world situation is projected to see 767.96 MMT of production | ||||||||||
| (up 2.46 MMT due mostly to higher FSU production), world demand is placed at 770.84 MMT (up 1.4 MMT) and ending world stocks | ||||||||||
| are shown at 91.8 MMT (up 1.55 from a month ago but down 2.7 from 06/07). The world production estimates are the U.S. at 316 MMT, | ||||||||||
| China at 146 MMT, Brazil at 50, Argentina at 24, Mexico at 23.8, the EU-27 at 55.72 MMT, and the FSU-12 at 15.2 MMT.. The projected | ||||||||||
| world production and use figures are new records. Due to the low ending days of supply this is a FRIENDLY corn report. | ||||||||||
| CALL US AT 1-800-867-8289 FOR MARKETING STRATEGIES RELATING TO THIS CROP REPORT! | ||||||||||
| Copyright 2007 Market Data, Inc. - MDI - all rights reserved. The information contained in these pages is believed to be | ||||||||||
| accurate but is not guaranteed by MDI. Any action taken as a result of any information or opinions expressed on these | ||||||||||
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| taken as a result of the information contained on these pages or in this website. | ||||||||||